Tariffs, trade and technology: the macro forces shaping metals markets
In a world being redefined by powerful macro forces, how can the metals and mining sector adapt?
1 minute read
Peter Martin
Head of Economics, Macroeconomics
Peter Martin
Head of Economics, Macroeconomics
Peter is responsible for producing our macroeconomic outlook to 2050.
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Valentina Kretzschmar
as Vice President Consulting, Energy Transition Strategy
Valentina Kretzschmar
as Vice President Consulting, Energy Transition Strategy
Dr Valentina Kretzschmar has over 25 years of experience in the energy sector.
View Valentina Kretzschmar's full profile
Peter Schmitz
Director, Global Copper Markets Research
Peter Schmitz
Director, Global Copper Markets Research
Peter brings extensive copper market expertise from mine sites to boardrooms, guiding clients through industry shifts.
View Peter Schmitz's full profileThe mining industry stands at a crossroads defined by geopolitical tension, supply chain stress and the redefinition of value. At our recent LME Forum 2025 event in London, we gathered a group of sector experts to discuss how these powerful macro forces are set to shape the future of metals markets.
Fill out the form on this page to download our eight key takeaways from the discussion, or read on for just two of our top takeaways:
1. The full impact of tariffs has yet to arrive
Delays to threatened tariffs and front-loading of demand supported industrial production and exports in H1 2025. However, with average effective US tariffs now around 25%, their impact may be starting to be felt: real wage growth in the US is under 1%, and employment growth is slowing. While further trade deals and optimisation of trade flows could slightly reduce US effective tariff rates, the ultimate outcome may be a reset in global trade.
2. Chinese support is unlikely to be sustainable
Chinese government stimulus – including RMB4.4 trillion (US$620 billion) of local government bond issuance in 2025 – has helped offset a potential tariff-driven global slowdown. The degree of support is likely to ease going forward, however, while consumption-led stimulus will shift from big-ticket items to childcare and discounts on loan rates.
At the same time, the US clampdown on transshipments (the re-exporting of Chinese goods to the US via third-party countries) will act as a further drag on the Chinese economy. Trade data shows transshipment activity through countries such as Vietnam largely balancing lower direct exports from China to the US in H1 2025. However, the US is imposing an additional 40% tariff on goods that don’t undergo sufficient transformation in third countries to combat transshipment.
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Fill out the form on this page to download our eight key takeaways from the discussion.
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