The Middle East conflict is reshaping the priorities of its largest NOCs

The Middle East conflict has tested ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy, and the response is already redefining their business development agendas.  

In the near term, all three NOCs are focused on restoring capacity and strengthening export resilience. Over the longer term, the conflict will reshape how they approach domestic resource access, partnerships and M&A, at home and abroad. 

Interest in Middle East resources among IOCs and international NOCs will remain strong. Uncertain and volatile environments make low-cost barrels attractive, and the region has the lowest of the lot. However, elevated geopolitical risk may lead some international companies to become more selective about future exposure, pushing NOCs to widen their partnership pool to new entrants. 

Drawing on research from Wood Mackenzie’s Corporate Strategy & Analytics Service (CSAS) , the full report explores how the conflict is reshaping the priorities of ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy, and what this could mean for future partnerships and investment.  

Fill in the form to download the full report, or read on for a preview of some of the key themes explored. 

1. ADNOC is leading the recovery and raising its ambitions

ADNOC is leading the recovery. Freed from production caps, ADNOC is looking beyond its current oil capacity target while. the UAE is also targeting gas self-sufficiency by 2030. 

How could ADNOC balance oil growth, gas self-sufficiency and international expansion? The full report sets out the trade-offs.  

2. Aramco's gas push could open up the Kingdom’s upstream to international partners

As the world's largest and lowest-cost oil producer, Aramco has considerable financial and operational flexibility. But the demands on management are mounting: maintaining oil capacity, expanding domestic gas and diversifying its portfolio. 

How could Aramco's growing gas ambitions reshape its strategy and create new opportunities for international partners? The report examines where those openings could emerge.

3. QatarEnergy faces its most complex partner decisions in years

QatarEnergy's North Field West Expansion and LNG repair programme may create new partnership opportunities. Exploration remains central to QatarEnergy's international strategy but should it also consider development-stage acquisitions? 

What could this mean for QatarEnergy’s existing and future partnerships? Find out more in the full report. 

4. The road ahead

The conflict has increased the number of competing priorities facing regional NOCs, with ADNOC, Aramco and QatarEnergy having to balance domestic priorities with their international ambitions. 

Partner selection, more than capacity alone, is likely to separate the NOCs that emerge strongest. Download the full report for the complete analysis across upstream, gas and LNG. 

As a Knowledge Partner of ADIPEC 2026, Wood Mackenzie brings its independent research, data and expertise to Leadership Roundtables and discussions on the issues shaping energy markets and the wider global energy system.