Opinion

US Lower 48: what to look for in 2025

Predictions for the year ahead

1 minute read

Lydia Walker, Scott Norlin, Robert Clarke, Maria Peacock & Matthew Woodson

Change will be front of mind for the US Lower 48 in 2025. A new administration has already started to move pieces in position that could impact emissions, investment and activity levels.

What will be the impact of these changes? Powered by Lens Upstream, in this report we share our take on the key themes we'll be watching closely including:

  • Methane fees: the recently finalised Waste Emissions Charge calls for first payments due in 2025. Will adjustments catch some by surprise?
  • Cost structure: efficiency goalposts keep moving but opex and tariffs signal big risks. Can AI wins offset these headwinds?
  • Company reinvestment philosophy: will E&Ps hold the line on reinvestment rates? 

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