Canada upstream: 4 things to look for in 2026

Canada's upstream sector enters 2026 with contrasting outlooks shaping capital allocation.

Oil and gas diverge as pipeline constraints ease and policy clarity emerges. Oil operators focus on disciplined brownfield expansion, while gas producers pursue selective growth anchored in LNG and AI-driven demand despite AECO weakness.

Drawing on unique insight from Lens Upstream, in this report we share our take on this, and more key themes to watch in 2026. This includes: 

• Gas fundamentals improve: infrastructure investments and AI demand drive growth, but price differentials persist.
• M&A shifts from transformative deals to tactical moves: where will deal activity be focused? 
• Incremental steps forward on the policy tightrope? The Canada-Alberta MOU unlocks project approvals but volume commitments could remain a bottleneck.  
• And more. 

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