Caspian upstream: 5 things to look for in 2026

We expect record oil and gas production in 2026 from the Caspian's upstream sector. But widening market access, increasing investment attractiveness and managing export infrastructure loom large in investor considerations. Balancing risks and cultivating core relationships will be key.

Drawing on unique insight from Lens Upstream this report outlines our take on the five key themes to watch in 2025. This includes: 

• Kazakhstan faces significant oil export risks: recent drone attacks on the CPC terminal increase downside risk to Kazakh crude flows.   
• Upstream capex: negotiations to extend the 900 kb/d Tengizchevroil contract will help shape future spend.
• Decision time for Azerbaijan’s gas expansion plans: 2026 will deliver answers to critical questions.
• And more.