US wind: what utilities and developers need to know

The US wind market is navigating a period of significant change. Policy shifts are affecting project economics, supply-chain decisions and development timelines, while developers continue to advance projects already further through the pipeline. 

Despite these headwinds, Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook finds the five-year US onshore new-build forecast remains broadly stable. More than half of the 2026-2028 project pipeline is already operational or under construction, helping to limit the impact that execution could have on Wood Mackenzie’s near-term outlook. 

That resilience, however, is only part of the story. 

Why is the US onshore wind outlook proving resilient? 

For utilities and developers assessing future supply, one of the most significant signals is how projects are responding to changing policy conditions. 

Developers have accelerated projects where possible to capture remaining tax-credit opportunities, while recent changes to permitting conditions have altered the risk profile for parts of the pipeline. The result is an onshore market in which commercial operation timing is moving around, but Wood Mackenzie’s overall five-year new-build outlook has changed relatively little quarter on quarter.  

Yet, uncertainty has not disappeared. Import restrictions and pending guidance affecting the wind supply chain mean developers have limited visibility over future sourcing strategies and costs.  

For utilities and developers, the question is increasingly not simply how much wind will be built, but which projects are best positioned to reach operation, and when.

What does the latest turbine order activity indicate? 

The supply chain is already responding to the changing policy environment. 

US firm turbine orders reached their highest quarterly level since late 2023 in Q2 2026, with developers securing equipment as they worked towards tax-credit qualification deadlines.  

That acceleration is an important market signal. For utilities evaluating procurement and developers planning projects, policy timelines are increasingly influencing equipment orders, construction schedules and grid-connection strategies. 

The question now is how much of that momentum translates into projects reaching operation as the policy environment evolves. 

Where are the biggest opportunities and risks emerging? 

The picture differs considerably across the market. 

Onshore development remains concentrated in several major regions, with the West representing the largest share of Wood Mackenzie’s new-build outlook through 2030. Texas and the Midwest are also significant markets.  

Offshore wind faces a different set of conditions. Projects already under construction continue to advance, but an unstable policy environment and federal lease buybacks are reducing the longer-term development pipeline.  

This divergence makes project-level visibility increasingly valuable. Understanding where capacity is likely to materialise, how mature the underlying pipeline is and which risks could alter project timing will be critical for utilities and developers navigating the next phase of the market. 

Could new design standards change wind project economics? 

There is a new policy development worth watching. 

The forthcoming American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7-28 building code guidelines are expected to extend tornado-load design requirements to wind turbines. Depending on location and turbine characteristics, meeting those requirements could require additional materials and raise project costs in tornado-prone regions.  

For developers assessing new projects and utilities considering future supply, this introduces another potential variable alongside permitting, equipment sourcing and construction risk. 

What should utilities and wind developers watch next? 

The Q3 picture points to a US wind market that is resilient but increasingly shaped by policy. Permitting and cost uncertainty is influencing development decisions, giving advanced projects greater near-term visibility, and the risks facing onshore and offshore wind are diverging.  

For companies making procurement, development and portfolio decisions, headline capacity growth is therefore only part of the picture. The maturity, location and timing of projects will be just as important. 

Want the fuller picture? 

Fill out the form on this page to download the complimentary executive summary of our Q3 2026 US wind energy monitor to explore the key developments shaping the market, including the latest outlook for onshore and offshore wind, project pipeline dynamics and emerging risks.