US wind growth is becoming a race against the clock

The US wind market is entering a critical phase as developers accelerate construction ahead of the phase-out of production and investment tax credits. Yet the market is becoming increasingly divided between an acceleration of construction-ready projects and a weakening early-term pipeline of wind projects facing greater permitting and supply chain uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s US Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026 report lays out the latest developments. 

The near-term outlook has strengthened, with the five-year new build wind forecast for greenfield projects rising 5% quarter-on-quarter. Overall annual additions are forecast to peak in 2027, helped by offshore wind. Yet this growth looks unlikely to be sustained, as developers prioritise execution over planning new projects. 

How is the market changing? 

The shift from pipeline growth to project execution is already visible in market activity. Construction starts increased 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, while firm turbine orders exceeded more than five times the level recorded during the first quarter of 2025. The increase reflects urgency around the tax-credit window. Projects that began physical construction before July 4, 2026 must be placed in service, as late as December 31st, 2030, to secure tax credits.  

Those that missed the construction-start deadline must be fully operational as late as December 31, 2027 to obtain the credits. For developers, the message is straightforward: securing a position in the pipeline is no longer enough. Projects need to clear permitting, offtake, financing and equipment procurement steps quickly enough to hit these deadlines.  

The changing market is also apparent in offtake. Demand for corporate PPAs is strengthening on the back of data centre growth. Google and Xcel Energy’s 1.9 GW portfolio deal, announced in Q1 2026, reflects the scale of data centre-driven procurement. As some utility wind procurement slows, corporate buyers could play a growing role in supporting new wind capacity as US electricity demand rises. 

When will onshore wind development peak? 

A two-speed market has been created, with a growing premium on project maturity. Projects that have secured permits, offtake and grid connection agreements are being accelerated to take advantage of the remaining tax credit window. Less mature developments face a more uncertain path. As federal permitting delays push less mature projects further into the decade, the largest volume of new-build onshore capacity is now expected in 2028 rather than 2027. 

What is happening in offshore wind? 

Offshore wind will provide an important near-term boost to supply as the pipeline under construction approaches completion. However, the market remains exposed to significant policy and commercial uncertainty. More than 2,900 square kilometres of offshore leases entered termination settlements during the first half of 2026, with proceeds from a $2.7 billion federal buyout expected to be redirected towards conventional energy, geothermal and fossil fuel projects. 

How important will repowering become? 

The phasing out of wind tax credits will have a profound long-term impact on the market, slowing wind additions beyond 2030. However, the ageing operational fleet creates new opportunities for repowering. Around 81 GW of wind capacity will be at least 15 years old by 2035, much of it in Texas, the Plains and the Midwest.  

Replacing older turbines with larger, more efficient machines could improve energy yields while making use of existing land rights, grid connections and permitting precedents. These advantages could reduce costs and development timelines compared with greenfield projects. 

Improved technology and higher capacity factors can help reduce reliance on tax incentives, while growing electricity demand could create more favourable revenue conditions across the sector. Developers will need to secure offtake and grid capacity earlier, but repowering sites may offer alternative routes to future growth. 

The US wind market is experiencing a fairly long process of readjustment but will not hit a simple cliff edge in 2030. Beyond the expiry of tax credits, the strongest opportunities are likely to be concentrated among projects that can demonstrate a clear route to construction and operation earlier, alongside repowering. Capitalising on them, however, will require an investment logic built on commercial fundamentals rather than tax equity. 

Learn more about US wind growth  

Fill in the form to read the US Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026 report Executive Summary.