The automotive sector is in transition. Today, there are about 5 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road globally, less than 0.5% of the 1.2 billion light vehicle fleet. We forecast 300 million EVs and AEVs on the road by 2040 in our base case – one in six light vehicles and rising.
But the rise of EVs won't be linear. Automakers and consumer preferences will affect the pace of penetration.
China is driving e-bus demand – will the US and EU get on board?
China currently accounts for 98% of the global electric bus stock, and adoption is steadily increasing. The Chinese market will more than double to surpass the 1 million e-bus mark by 2023.
In the US and Europe, the market remains largely in pilot phase. But with significant clean transport targets to reach that could be about to change. Which markets show the greatest promise in our e-bus forecast? Read more >>
Electric vehicle range anxiety: what’s your limit?
Within the next five or six years, EVs will be cheaper than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in many major regions, including much of Europe, the US and China. The switch is set for an EV revolution, but some obstacles remain.
For example, range anxiety, the fear that a battery will run out of power mid-route, is a key psychological barrier. Read more >>
Is the EV revolution more hype than reality?
The EV market has gained tremendous interest from consumers, manufacturers and media worldwide. Management teams from global automotive OEMs have highlighted a sector transformation on the horizon. However, the question everybody is asking is – is it more hype than reality?
By 2025, EVs will be cheaper than standard internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in some major regions, including Northern Europe, the US and China. We found that by 2024/25, consumers would most likely switch to an EV if the only factor taken into account was total cost of ownership. So, what’s holding customers back from widespread EV adoption?
Twists on the road to transition
What are the unexpected trends unfolding in the big five car markets?
- The US will be home to almost a quarter of EVs by 2040.
- China's EV stock will reach over 90 million units by 2040 – 20% of its total car fleet.
- In India, two-wheelers – motorbikes and scooters – are the hot segment
- Europe is fast becoming a scrap heap for diesel cars.
- Japan has a goal of improving fuel efficiency and it’s working; the 2020 target is already in the bag.
Introducing Wood Mackenzie's Electric Vehicle Service
Go beyond forecaststhe transportation sector's contribution to all greenhouse gas emissions
How green is an electric vehicle?
To understand how the environmental credentials of electric vehicles (EVs) stack up against ICEs on a well-to-wheel basis, we evaluated the energy and material used across lifecycle stages, including well-to-pump (or charging station), pump-to-wheel, and vehicle and battery manufacturing and disposal. Watch the video for the analysis: How green are EVs really in comparison to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars on a well-to-wheel basis?