Reimagining European ethylene: an assessment of closure threat risk to 2030

Wood Mackenzie analysis forecasts that over 3 million tons of European ethylene capacity is at medium-high risk of closure during the 2020 decade. Balanced with a new investment in ethylene from INEOS in Antwerp, Belgium with a capacity of 1,450 ktpa, this would represent a net reduction in European ethylene capacity of around 1.5 million tons or 7% of the current level by 2030. Wood Mackenzie identifies primarily locations for this capacity consolidation to take place as Italy, Germany, the UK and France. This insight will explore the key assumptions behind this conclusion and highlight the relative strengths and weaknesses of assets operating in these locations relative to the wider European ethylene market.