Global steam cracker closure threat - which assets are most at risk of closure?

The ethylene industry is undergoing unprecedented challenges from a sluggish macroeconomic environment, high energy prices and capacity overbuild. These pose closure risks to a significant number of ethylene assets, particularly the units in Asia and Europe facing elevated energy and feedstock costs. Using Wood Mackenzie’s ethylene asset benchmarking tool (E-ABT), we compared the ethylene production margins in 2023 and 2028 and classified the assets into three risk levels based on their margin position. We also analyzed the strategic importance of assets and the country's regulations and policies for a deeper analysis on the asset closure risks.