The global ethylene cost curve in a $100/bbl world

The recent rise in the oil price could lead to significant repercussions in the global petrochemicals industry. Brent crude oil has breached and is currently flirting with $100/bbl. Wood Mackenzie’s base-case global ethylene outlook over the coming industry cycle to 2025, includes a period of below mid-cycle utilisation rates. This view is built around a large and sustained build of capacity, particularly in Asia Pacific, relative to underlying global demand growth levels. This report discusses: the overall shape of the cost curve in a $100/bbl oil pricing environment; the key factors driving the four quartiles of the global ethylene cost curve; overall regional winners and losers in terms of competitive positioning.