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Adani gives the go-ahead to the Carmichael thermal coal project

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Report summary

Adani gave the "green light" to develop the Carmichael mine and rail projects in Australia's Galilee Basin. The company called it a historic day for Adani and termed it the largest single investment decision by an Indian corporation in Australia with pre construction works expected to begin in September 2017. The seaborne thermal coal market needs new supply beyond 2020. Our asset by asset modelling indicates that Carmichael will be the first greenfield thermal coal project to commission in the Galilee Basin. But under our current price assumptions Carmichael does not generate a positive NPV. We expect Carmichael to start in 2023 and will require a US$82/t FOB Newcastle benchmark price to deliver a 15% IRR. Some further cost reduction may be possible improving its economics however financing remains the single biggest hurdle to project delivery.

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  • Australia's coal capital spend versus export
  • Future mine and project thermal export production growth for Australia (Mt)

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