Adani gives the go-ahead to the Carmichael thermal coal project

Report summary

Adani gave the "green light" to develop the Carmichael mine and rail projects in Australia's Galilee Basin. The company called it a historic day for Adani and termed it the largest single investment decision by an Indian corporation in Australia, with pre-construction works expected to begin in September 2017. The seaborne thermal coal market needs new supply beyond 2020. Our asset-by-asset modelling indicates that Carmichael will be the first greenfield thermal coal project to commission in the Galilee Basin. But under our current price assumptions, Carmichael does not generate a positive NPV. We expect Carmichael to start in 2023, and will require a US$82/t FOB Newcastle benchmark price to deliver a 15% IRR. Some further cost reduction may be possible, improving its economics, however financing remains the single biggest hurdle to project delivery.