China coal long-term outlook H2 2019: supply-side reform will stabilise prices

Supply-side reform has been key in China managing its domestic coal market in response to prices. Compliant supply has been gradually added to bring prices down. But the market is now close to oversupply. As a result, we expect the government to adjust its policy, to keep prices within the desired range in both the near term and long term. Thermal coal imports have kept increasing from 2015 to 2019 as the price arbitrage has widened. However, the forthcoming oversupply will narrow the gap. We expect demand for thermal coal imports will stabilise at 100 Mt in the long term. After peaking at RMB1,865/t in 2018, benchmark Liulin #4 CFR Tangshan metallurgical coal prices will keep falling, before mildly recovering and flattening out from the late 2020s on to 2040. However, despite overall metallurgical coal demand decreasing after 2020, domestic supply will also decline. This will support seaborne coal imports to remain high and even increase in the long run.