Commodity Market Report

China coal long-term outlook H2 2019: supply-side reform will stabilise prices

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09 December 2019

China coal long-term outlook H2 2019: supply-side reform will stabilise prices

Report summary

Supply-side reform has been key in China managing its domestic coal market in response to prices. Compliant supply has been gradually added to bring prices down. But the market is now close to oversupply. As a result, we expect the government to adjust its policy, to keep prices within the desired range in both the near term and long term. Thermal coal imports have kept increasing from 2015 to 2019 as the price arbitrage has widened. However, the forthcoming oversupply will narrow the gap. We expect demand for thermal coal imports will stabilise at 100 Mt in the long term. After peaking at RMB1,865/t in 2018, benchmark Liulin #4 CFR Tangshan metallurgical coal prices will keep falling, before mildly recovering and flattening out from the late 2020s on to 2040. However, despite overall metallurgical coal demand decreasing after 2020, domestic supply will also decline. This will support seaborne coal imports to remain high and even increase in the long run.

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  • Document

    01_cms_china_coal_executive_summary_data.xlsx

    XLSX 443.15 KB

  • Document

    02_cms_china_coal_prices_data.xlsx

    XLSX 985.30 KB

  • Document

    04_cms_china_coal_supply_data.xlsx

    XLSX 207.89 KB

  • Document

    05_cms_china_coal_infrastructure_data.xlsx

    XLSX 1.80 MB

  • Document

    China coal long-term outlook H2 2019.pdf

    PDF 1.28 MB

  • Document

    03_cms_china_coal_demand_data.xlsx

    XLSX 883.01 KB

  • Document

    China coal long-term outlook H2 2019: supply-side reform will stabilise prices

    ZIP 741.04 KB

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    China coal long-term outlook H2 2019: supply-side reform will stabilise prices

    ZIP 5.74 MB

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