Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook August 2019: weak demand pressures prices

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02 September 2019

China coal short-term outlook August 2019: weak demand pressures prices

Report summary

Weakness in demand fundamentals will be September’s theme, for both thermal and metallurgical coal. While the Liulin #4 price remains flat, we expect the thermal benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500 price to decline in the month, despite safety inspections ahead of China’s 70th anniversary celebrations. Read this month’s short-term outlook to understand the different price movements and check out the key events that took place in August.

Table of contents

  • Prices still sliding despite safety checks ahead of China’s 70th anniversary
  • Domestic metallurgical coal prices recover slightly in August
  • Weakness in infrastructure investment and property market fails to boost coal demand
  • Metallurgical coal demand retreats due to tighter environmental restrictions
  • China aims to reduce number of small-scale mines in three years
  • Slower output growth ahead of 70th anniversary
  • Higher imports in July raise expectations of restrictions for the rest of the year

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
  • Year-to-date announced capacity changes

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms-china-short-term-market-report-data.xls

    XLS 2.45 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook August 2019: weak demand pressures prices

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    China coal short-term outlook August 2019: weak demand pressures prices

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