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China coal short-term outlook February 2020: price support from tight supply is fading

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03 March 2020

China coal short-term outlook February 2020: price support from tight supply is fading

Report summary

In February, both thermal and metallurgical coal prices found their support from tightness in supply, due to the impact of the coronavirus. The QHD 5,500 price stuck around RMB580/t in the month, while the Liulin #4 price went up to RMB1,490/t. Business is recovering, but supply seems to be outpacing demand, particularly for thermal coal. The market is still waiting for demand to fully recover, while supply has been improving vigorously. We expect the Liulin #4 price can hold at RMB1,490/t in March, but the QHD 5,500 price will slide by RMB20/t. Read our report for more details.

Table of contents

  • Fast-recovering supply is pressuring prices
  • Stagnant domestic coking coal supply drives up prices
  • Government stimulating demand to return to normal
  • Slow pace of steel consumption recovery suppresses coking coal demand
  • Domestic supply hit by coronavirus, but recovering quickly
  • Metallurgical coal supply faces some downside risks

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms-china-short-term-market-report-data.xlsx

    XLSX 392.22 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook February 2020: price support from tight supply is fading

    PDF 1004.64 KB

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    China coal short-term outlook February 2020: price support from tight supply is fading

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