China coal short-term outlook May 2024

The benchmark Qinhuangdao price increased to RMB882/t at the end of May from RMB832/t one month earlier. Does it mean the market is in tight supply? The answer is no. Coal prices climbed hesitatingly as domestic supply was tight but imports were high, economic activity rebounded amid sluggish property market and temperatures scaled record high but coal inventory rose. The positive mood faded as steel demand didn’t improve much by mid-May and the additional batch of policies to boost the property sector were not as well-received in the market. Steel demand will be sluggish over summer, with heat and rain impacting construction activities. How will the coal price perform, especially since Shanxi seems to be trying to increase coal production at all costs? Read our report for more details.