Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment

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01 November 2019

China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment

Report summary

China’s thermal coal prices slid RMB25/t in October, underpinned by strong supply. With high inventory at gencos and strong supply, we believe the price for QHD 5,500 will fluctuate between RMB555/t and RMB570/t in November, assuming a mild winter. October prices for premium low-vol coking coals nosedived again, despite it being a peak demand month. Benchmark metallurgical coal Liulin #4 plummeted by RMB120/t to RMB1,410/t at the end of October, its lowest price since August 2017. We expect the fall in prices to moderate, with Liulin #4 likely dropping by RMB20/t to RMB1,390/t in November due to slightly improving demand.

Table of contents

  • Strong supply pressures thermal coal price
  • Metallurgical coal prices tumble on weaker market sentiment
  • Stronger thermal coal demand as hydro generation weakens further
  • Weaker economy curtails metallurgical coal demand
  • September output strengthens, despite safety checks

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Key coal-producing regions September output
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms-china-short-term-market-report-data.xls

    XLS 2.53 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment

    PDF 894.42 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment

    ZIP 2.29 MB

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