China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment Report

Commodity Market Report 01 November 2019

Get this report

$5,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

China’s thermal coal prices slid RMB25/t in October, underpinned by strong supply. With high inventory at gencos and strong supply, we believe the price for QHD 5,500 will fluctuate between RMB555/t and RMB570/t in November, assuming a mild winter. October prices for premium low-vol coking coals nosedived again, despite it being a peak demand month. Benchmark metallurgical coal Liulin #4 plummeted by RMB120/t to RMB1,410/t at the end of October, its lowest price since August 2017. We expect the fall in prices to moderate, with Liulin #4 likely dropping by RMB20/t to RMB1,390/t in November due to slightly improving demand.

Strong supply pressures thermal coal price
Metallurgical coal prices tumble on weaker market sentiment
Stronger thermal coal demand as hydro generation weakens further
Weaker economy curtails metallurgical coal demand
September output strengthens, despite safety checks

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)

Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
Key coal-producing regions September output
Thermal coal supply (Mt)
Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

cms-china-short-term-market-report-data.xls

XLS 2.53 MB
China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment

PDF 893.16 KB
China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment

ZIP 2.29 MB