China coal strategic planning outlook - 2024

China is ramping up its non-fossil energy generation capacity. The country’s renewable installation capacity accounted for half of the global total in 2023, continuing to grow rapidly in the next few years. However, in the short term, renewable energy still can not meet growing domestic demand, which has led to a surge in thermal coal imports. We expect imports to continue to soar in 2024, but the peak will be short. The supply and demand situation may change significantly over the next few years. The met coal market will continue to be driven by fluctuating steel demand. Meanwhile, scattered government policies have impacted the pillars of steel consumption—the property and construction sectors—both positively and negatively. No clarity on steel demand will lead to unstable steel mill operations, keeping uncertainty around margins intact. Given these conditions, cheaper raw materials for blast furnaces will continue to be preferred, defining the coal import market landscape.