Name: China's coal policies rescue the thermal coal market
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 54454
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 14 November 2016

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China's coal production restrictions have turned coal markets on their head this year. The Chinese government is trying to strike a balance between restoring its crippled coal sector to some measure of health while maintaining the push to reduce coal sector overcapacity without damaging downstream users such as the electricity utilities. Our analysis suggests a RMB515/tonne price strikes a reasonable balance between the coal and utility sectors and would be viewed as an acceptable price level by the Chinese government. We think this is good news for the seaborne market. We calculate this price level equates to a benchmark Newcastle thermal coal price of US$73/tonne basis 6000 nar. While well below current spot and contract prices, at this price level 98% of the seaborne market is cash positive.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Overview
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Coal industry losses have been significant
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        The Chinese government responded by enforcing capacity cuts
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        What thermal coal price is the government comfortable with?
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Break-even analysis
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        RMB515/tonne represents a reasonable balance between producers and utilities
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        This price level is good news for the seaborne market
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<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">China's coal sector costs, revenues and cash flows 2011-2016</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Regional benchmark break-even prices</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chinese domestic to international price arbitrage</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Seaborne export thermal coal margin curve 2016 at US$73/tonne basis 6000 nar FOB Newcastle</li>
    </ul>

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<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >China coal policies rescue the thermal coal market.xls</p>
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    <span>207.00 KB</span>
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</li><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >China's coal policies rescue the thermal coal market</p>
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