Coronavirus impact on bulks - Fortnight ending 12th June

Many governments grievously affected by the covid outbreak are now seeking to completely reopen their economies. But as is the case for impatient athletes, the risk of further injury is real when trying to run too soon. The Beijing outbreak related to at Xinfadi market highlights the potential for setbacks while no vaccine exists for covid-19. The risk in the US, Brazil and UK – where infection rates are higher – is much greater. In the last two weeks the general trend has been one of solid recovery with energy and steel demand shifting upward in almost all affected countries. Iron ore continues to benefit most, given its symbiotic relationship with China’s healthy steel sector. What China gives coal markets in one hand, it takes with the other: strong import demand early this year is being undermined by persistent threats to cut import quotas. Combined with the collapse of Indian demand, Chinese risk is keeping coal prices within the cost curve.