Coronavirus impact on bulks week ended 22nd May

The lockdown freeze on economic activity continued to thaw this week allowing more modest price gains across steel, iron ore and coal. Chinese power demand has been a standout sitting at +15% y-o-y since early May, but power demand in most major Asian and European economies also continued their slow emergence from hibernation. Unfortunately the thaw did not extend to geopolitical relations, with US and Australia enduring far chillier relationships with China this week. The potential for trade disruption has grown, and Australian coal exports in particular are seeing increased risk. The impact of trade disputes is hard to assess at this stage, but the Two Sessions stimulus announcements are likely to accelerate Chinese growth in H2, providing a range of opportunities that Australian miners would be loathe to miss.