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Galilee Basin coal projects may get infrastructure boost

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12 December 2016

Galilee Basin coal projects may get infrastructure boost

Report summary

Speculation is rife about a possible federal government loan of US$740 million (A$1 billion) for Adani's Carmichael Rail Network (CRN). The potential loan would be paid out of the Northern Australian Infrastructure Fund (NAIF), but no details have been finalised. We evaluate the benefits to government should the NAIF loan provide enough stimulus for the Galilee Basin to proceed, against the commercial risks. It may not be the right time for NAIF to invest in Galilee Basin rail infrastructure given our expected timing on the need for Carmichael's coal in the market. Under our current price assumptions Carmichael does not generate a positive NPV and we only forecast a need for Galilee Basin coal from 2025.

Table of contents

  • How do Galilee Basin coal projects stack up?
  • Government benefit
  • Commercial risks could outweigh the benefits
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Australia thermal coal export project incentive prices (Real 2016 terms, 15% IRR)
  • Australia total coal port capacity and demand (Mt)

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    Galilee Basin coal projects may get infrastructure boost.xls

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