Commodity Market Report
Global Metallurgical Coal December 2021 Outlook to 2050
Report summary
Despite Covid-19 rearing its ugly head again with new variants, economic recovery continued throughout 2021. Inebriated by government stimulus money and pent up demand, global metallurgical coal prices rocketed behind a soaring steel market. China’s ban on Australian coal continues to cast a cloud of uncertainty into seaborne trade, creating two incongruent price points for FOB Australia and CFR China cargoes. While it is understandable to worry about the current chaos, today’s market drivers will be a small cog in the longer-term supply/demand machine, as the market returns to fundamental trends and decarbonisation starts to shape the future.
Table of contents
-
Key considerations
- Shift in market dynamics inevitable
- Supply investment needed as market grows through investment horizon
- Decarbonisation is a longer-term existential threat
-
Current outlook at a glance
- DEMAND
- Decarbonisation and green steel considerations in base case
- Hydrogen replacement of PCI
- Base case scrap use
- Hydrogen-based DRI
- SUPPLY
- PRICE
- Current price outlook overview
-
Forecast breakdown
- 2021-2025: China ban and its consequences muddy the near- to mid-term outlook
- Risks 2021-2025
- 2025-2030: Growth increases with developing signs pointing to supply concerns
- Risks 2026-2030
- 2031-2040: Duality of Indian and southeast Asia growth and decarbonisation under growing supply gap
- 2041-2050: Demand for metallurgical coal in the hands of India as hydrogen and EAF production sees monumental growth abroad
- Risks 2041-2050
- Key trends
-
Supply forecast overview
- Australia
- United States
- Canada
- Russia
- Indonesia
- Mozambique
- Overview
- SSCC forced to punch above its weight
- PCI outlook tempered by hydrogen competition
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Supply change 2021 to 2050
- Global crude steel production
- Global BOF steel production
- Global EAF steel production
- Long-term Indian crude steel, hot metal, coke production and coal imports
- Long-term Chinese crude steel, hot metal, coke production and coal imports
- Demand change 2021 to 2050
- Queensland HCC Benchmark – US$/t (real 2021$)
- Breakeven curve
- HCC cash cost curve 2021
- Supply by coal type
- HCC demand versus operating capacity (with disruption)
- Incentive price curve to 2050
What's included
This report contains:
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