Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook June 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Fundamentals for coal markets in the month of June went topsy-turvy. Correction of the Queensland PLV benchmark took place throughout the month, crashing over $100/t – from over US$400/t at the beginning of the month to near $300/t at month’s end. However, the price for premium thermal coal defied previously accepted logic that it must be under the Queensland PLV benchmark. We believe this trend will continue into July, as utilities in APAC and Europe are desperate for high-CV spot coal, due to the lack of available natural gas supply. Inflationary pressures on steel demand and renewed metallurgical coal supply from Australia will keep pressure on prices for the rest of 2022. We are still maintaining the view that the Queensland PLV benchmark monthly average will stay above $300/t, however. Another increase in metallurgical coal supply in 2023 from major exporters will further the decrease in price, toward the $200/t mark at year end.
Table of contents
- PLV takes a dive, but fundamentals will limit how low it will go
- Import action into China under constraints amid lower domestic demand
- Outlook: prices to remain stagnant, especially for lower-volatile coals
- Outlook: China metallurgical coal supply to increase in the near term, but risks are to the downside
-
China: demand collapsed amid slower industrial activities and a bearish outlook
- Coke
- India: high input prices and tepid demand keep imports range bound
- Japan: shaky economy and weaker Japanese yen to hurt coking coal demand
-
Australia: supply recovering
- Operations
-
United States: rail performance is improving, allowing for improving spot offers
- Operations
- China
- India
- Australia
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- PLV FOB price, % change month-on-month
- CFR China price, % change month-on-month
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian metallurgical coal imports
- Indian coke and pig iron prices
- Chinese monthly metallurgical coke exports by destination (Mt)
- Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
- BMA's CY production forecast
What's included
This report contains:
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