Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook October 2022

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The Queensland PHCC benchmark price pushed back over the US$300/t barrier, last seen in July of this year, on the back of lingering and emerging supply concerns. Offers for spot cargoes continued to defy the gravity of demand weakness. Chinese coal prices realised a brief price uptick in the lead up and during an important national political event. Recovering supply and demand weakness from a vital sector worked in tandem to pressure prices lower by month’s end.

Table of contents

  • Supply fears drive PLV benchmark price up
  • China’s import prices edge higher on domestic production cuts
  • Outlook: historically strong pricing to remain into 2023
  • Outlook: China’s import prices to ease on growing supply and bleak steel outlook
  • US domestic prices for 2023 to remain strong
  • China: peak construction season disappoints despite a surprise bounce in Q3 GDP growth
  • China: coke market fortunes reversed amid falling steel production
  • India: tepid demand in Q4 to impact met coal imports
  • Vietnam’s market sinks into despair amid depression in real estate
  • Japan’s metallurgical coal demand remains steady amid improved auto steel demand
  • Australia: flat to weaker supply expected from the majors
  • Australia: wet weather taking hold
  • USA: metallurgical coal supply still struggling to ramp up
  • China
  • China: coke exports hit a record high in September but are set to decline in Q4 2022
  • India
  • Australia
  • Russia: restrictions ease to free up exports for non-European buyers

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • PLV FoB % Change Month on Month
  • CFR China % Change Month on Month
  • Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
  • China BOF and rebar margins
  • China BOF/EAF share of steel production
  • Indian coking coal and met coke prices
  • BMA quarterly production (Mt)
  • Average monthly rainfall across Qld met coal mines
  • Worst impacted Qld met coal mines (1 to 24 Oct)
  • US metallurgical coal production from select mines
  • Chinese monthly metallurgical coke exports by destination (Mt)
  • Indian coking coal and PCI imports
  • Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Metallurgical coal markets - short-term outlook data - October 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 479.22 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook October 2022

    PDF 1.05 MB