Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2019: Awaiting a shift in dynamics

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01 May 2019

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2019: Awaiting a shift in dynamics

Report summary

Better than expected steel production in China, and a slow start to the export year in Australia has kept prices strong so far in 2019. Chinese coke and coal demand will get support now as construction season heats up, and perhaps an extra boost from stimulus projects and lower pollution risks. Much depends on the improvement in global supply of metallurgical coal through Q2 and beyond. Australian exports should rebound now that port and mine maintenance is taking a breather, and weather risks alleviate. We expect this shift in dynamic to put some downward pressure on prices, but those with hopes of a major correction will be left disappointed.

Table of contents

  • Near-term outlook looks supportive to price
  • Remainder of 2019 should see dynamics shift
  • SSCC suffering as thermal coal prices fall
  • Exports from Queensland begin to bounce back
  • Improving supply should continue in Q2 and the remainder of 2019
  • Carborough Downs mine out due to wall collapse
  • Wongawilli mine placed on Care & Maintenance
  • Arch Coal begins development at Leer South
  • West Virginia passes bill to provides severance tax cuts for new mines
  • Mission Coals assets split between Murray, Contura and Bluestone
  • China coal production on the up but hard coking coal struggling to grow
  • China macroeconomics
  • Germany experiencing economic slowdown
  • China steel and hot metal growth dominates March global statistics
  • Review organised for Indian anti-dumping duty on Australian and Chinese coke imports

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Queensland Ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Crude steel production - other major producers (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
  • Blast furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms_metallurgical_trade_short_term_outlook_april_2019.xls

    XLS 2.96 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2019: Awaiting a shift in dynamics

    ZIP 2.62 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2019: Awaiting a shift in dynamics

    ZIP 2.62 MB

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