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Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2019: prices fall sharply but rebound expected in Q4

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30 August 2019

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2019: prices fall sharply but rebound expected in Q4

Report summary

The foundations of an early 2019 bull market continued to crumble during August. The US-China trade dispute, the import quota saga, the well publicised US yield-curve inversion, and real global recessionary fears have gripped the metallurgical coal sector. As a result, prices for Australian low-volatile HCC fell by US$25/t during the month and are expected to remain weak during September. The first sign of relief is expected in mid-October when China returns to the market to meet its restocking needs after the country’s 70th anniversary celebrations at the start of the month. We expect China’s October deals to be completed using 2020 import quotas. This, together with some interest from Indian buyers, could see fundamentals tighten and prices recover into the new year.

Table of contents

  • Sojitz produces first coal at Gregory-Crinum restart
  • Blackwater's output down after financial year-end push
  • Q Coal’s Byerwen on track for 2 Mt of hard coking coal in 2019
  • Glencore opens pit to target HCC at Newlands
  • Coronado targets higher production at Curragh
  • Jellinbah explores underground extension at Lake Vermont
  • Ramaco's Elk Creek complex back to full capacity after earlier silo collapse
  • Ramaco expects to increase output over the next few years
  • Lower Mozambique production has sent costssoaring
  • Polish JSW launches four new longwalls
  • South Africa set to produce its own HCC again as early as next year

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Crude steel production – other major producers (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
  • Blast furnace hot metal production – other major producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms_metallurgical_trade_short_term_outlook_August_2019.xls

    XLS 3.04 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2019: prices fall sharply but rebound expected in Q4

    PDF 980.59 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2019: prices fall sharply but rebound expected in Q4

    ZIP 2.72 MB

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