Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2023

Prices lacked broad support in May, though pre-monsoon restocking by Indian buyers did generate a minor, short-lived price uptick. As such, Australian PLV FOB price declined by nearly US$40/t over the month. We don’t expect prices to improve in June-August, given low demand in China and India, and they will only recover back to US$220/t entering September and October when construction activity resumes on a larger scale. China remains our biggest concern as market confidence in the country has remained consistently fragile. Buying interests are cautious and domestic production has remained relentless. As such, the China CFR price will be below US$220/t before this autumn. Supply from Australia will continue to recover from earlier disruptions due to wet weather and rail delivery issues. As such, we have lowered our price forecasts for the second half of the year to an average of US$213/t.