Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2022

Queensland PLV benchmark prices collapsed over the month to below US$250/t in late November with an increase of spot Australian PHCC availability and deteriorating global steel demand, exaggerated by the global economic slowdown. However, mounting supply risks in the Australian wet season and ongoing high energy prices will provide the much-needed support to re-energise some recovery. PHCC benchmark prices will stay in a narrow range of US$250/t- $270/t throughout the Q1. With recessionary clouds darkening the demand outlook for 2023 and supply improving later next year, prices will ease gradually. Prices will remain above US$250/t until mid-2023 and levitate just above US$245/t on average for 2023. High thermal coal prices and continued cost inflation on the energy side will act as supplementary forces of support. China's slow and cautious approach to lifting the Covid-zero policy remains a risk to the global economy and coking coal prices.