Near-term events such as the Russia-Ukraine war and China relaxing its unofficial ban on Australian coal continue to keep metallurgical coal markets volatile. While we expect the Russia-Ukraine war to have lingering trade effects out to the early 2030s, this is only one chapter of the outlook. Our strategic outlook shows consistent demand for metallurgical coal on the seaborne market. A greenfield metallurgical coal supply response, beyond the current global operating capacity, is still required to meet demand from growing economies such as India. Despite this stable demand outlook, miners face risks at every corner, causing reluctance to invest in future capacity.