Global seaborne thermal coal outlook under the Russia ban scenario

In the April 2022 Strategic Planning Outlook for global thermal coal, we assumed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will de-escalate during 2022. Russian coal exports, disrupted by sanctioning and self-sanctioning by importers and ocean carrier providers, would gradually recover thereafter. The EU, UK and Japan have since announced their decisions to completely stop importing Russian coal, with varying timelines. In 2021, Russian coal comprised over two-thirds of the EU’s seaborne thermal coal imports and over 13% of Japan’s. In this insight, we explore the implications of a full and permanent ban on Russian coal imports into the EU, UK and Japan from 2023 for the seaborne thermal coal market.