Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal 10-year investment horizon outlook

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In the short-term, thermal coal markets get a bit of a reprieve in developed economies as the energy crisis prompts a delay in coal plant retirements . Coal generation capacity continues to grow in Asia in the mid-term , driven by China, India, and Southeast Asia. However, total coal-fired generation capacity declines overall by 2033, as decarbonization efforts eventually accelerate elsewhere . Global seaborne thermal coal market declines overall by 14% to 823 Mt by 2033. Seaborne thermal coal costs have increased around 33% in 2022 due to higher diesel prices, supply chain issues, and general inflation. Market risk and lack of access to cheap capital have kept producers from significantly investing in increasing supply despite high demand, which will keep supply tight and prices high though 2026. Newcastle benchmark prices are expected to remain over US$90/t through 2033.

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