Global Thermal Coal December 2021 Outlook to 2050

Thermal coal markets are beginning to soften from a dizzying spike in prices in the second half of 2021, which set new record highs. Pandemic-driven government stimulus lit a fire under power markets, resulting in a run on coal and gas supplies that were still stunted from 2020 lows. Despite a gradual decline in imports from China starting after this year, growing demand from India and South East Asia will ensure total seaborne thermal imports will continue growing through the short term and peak in 2023. However, growth from these countries will be unable to stave off the eventual decline seen in seaborne thermal coal markets as the energy transition accelerates, particularly after 2030, falling to 580 Mtpa by 2050.