Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2020: COVID-19 impacts begin to unfold
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- General discussion and base case
-
Low case COVID-19 scenarios
- Conditions which could induce lower prices:
- Glencore and Tohoku start negotiations for term JPU contracts
- China – supply tightening amid outbreak disruptions
- India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – mixed signs for seaborne coal
- South Korea – environmental curtailments continue
- Japan – coal-fired capacity still growing but uncertainty over virus impacts remains
- Malaysia – full commissioning of TNB’s JEP plant to support imports growth in 2020
- Europe – strong renewables and COVID-19 impacts depress coal further
- Australia – steady outlook but a virus-related demand risk
- South Africa – supply tightness continues in February
- Indonesia – potential supply curbs amid weakening demand
- 2 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
- Daily coal consumption of the six largest gencos in the coastal region
- COVID-19 low case for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 33% and 5% (US$/t)
What's included
This report contains: