Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2020: China's coronavirus crisis rattles the coal market

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Despite the prospects of a new year, the market has been a flurry of speculation in January as the Coronavirus spreads in China. The Chinese coal market typically slows during the Lunar New Year, but this year will be more pronounced as ports and mines face extended closures and slow restarts. For the seaborne market, the impact could be mixed as domestic supply shortages could benefit the imported market. However, an outbreak induced economic disruption could lead to an overall decline in demand.

Table of contents

  • China – supply tightening amid outbreak disruptions
  • India – working toward liberalising its coal sector
  • Europe – gas generation will continue to out-compete coal
  • South Korea – increasing nuclear availability easing coal unit curtailments
  • Southeast Asia – increasing coal-fired capacity in the cards
  • Australia – bushfire risks subside
  • South Africa – tight supply causes runaway Richards Bay prices
  • Indonesia – supply tightens on heavy rains and potential government quotas
  • Colombia – union negotiations strained in current bearish environment
  • Russia – rail infrastructure push to funnel shipments eastward
  • Poland – development projects advancing in the Lublin Basin

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    Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2020: China's coronavirus crisis rattles the coal market

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