Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2020: the world braces for April
Report summary
The market has been racing to keep up with coronavirus impact reports this month, weighing supply side impacts with demand declines, to see which will have a heavier bearing on the market. The seemingly only certainty is volatility, as typical fundamentals are thrown into disarray. So far, the impact on prices has been divided between the high calorific value (CV) and the low CV markets. Supply-side impacts have had the greater influence in the high CV coal market, while demand side impacts have weakened low CV prices.
Table of contents
- General discussion and base case
-
Low case coronavirus scenarios
- Conditions which could induce lower prices:
- China – supply recovery outpacing demand
- India – three-week lockdown begins end of March
-
South Korea and Japan – sustained oil prices could put coal gen at risk
- South Korean coal generation curtailments
- Europe – low demand stunting coal, despite carbon price decline
- South Africa – three-week lockdown begins end of March
- Colombia – coal mines take precautionary measures
- Australia – steady outlook but a virus-related demand risk
- Indonesia – low demand forces producers to curtail operations
- Russia – export support increasing as competitors take precautions
- United States – mining states deem coal production essential
- Ukraine – stops production at three mines
Tables and charts
This report includes 6 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
- Daily coal consumption of the six largest gencos in the coastal region
- Decline in demand compared y-o-y
- Gen decline w-o-w (since 22 Mar)
- Russian rail cost for coal shipments to Europe
- Coronavirus low case for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 33% and 5% (US$/t)
What's included
This report contains:
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