Global thermal short-term outlook August 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 August 2022

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

As the full ban on Russian coal into the European Union came into force in August, ARA prices surprisingly fell month over month, despite a sharp increase in the price of natural gas in the region. Conversely, Newcastle high-CV prices were exceptionally high in August as Australian supply was disrupted and demand for non-Russian high-energy coal remained high. Meanwhile, strong Indonesian supply and moderate import coal demand in China and India weakened low-energy coal prices in August. We explore how these recent trends will be affected by further gas supply disruptions in Europe, potential weather impacts in Australia, and redirected discounted Russian coal supplies. What impact will these issues have on seaborne coal prices?

China – low energy seaborne coal is now cheaper in China
India – record imports significantly aid in easing the coal crisis
Europe – revived coal units and healthy gas storage provide hope for energy security
Australia – exports recover in August but expected to finish weaker on La Ni ñ a ALERT
Indonesia – strong production continues, exports demand faces headwinds
Russia – as the EU market is lost, pivot to Asia remains challenged
South Africa – thermal coal exports continue into Europe
High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Australia thermal coal exports
Australia thermal coal export tradeflow
Indonesia coal production and exports

Indonesian total coal exports by destination*
Indonesian mines 7 day average rainfall (mm/week)
SA monthly coal exports by country/region
TFR average coal railed to the RBCT
Key prices - history and forecast
Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%