Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook August 2022
Report summary
As the full ban on Russian coal into the European Union came into force in August, ARA prices surprisingly fell month over month, despite a sharp increase in the price of natural gas in the region. Conversely, Newcastle high-CV prices were exceptionally high in August as Australian supply was disrupted and demand for non-Russian high-energy coal remained high. Meanwhile, strong Indonesian supply and moderate import coal demand in China and India weakened low-energy coal prices in August. We explore how these recent trends will be affected by further gas supply disruptions in Europe, potential weather impacts in Australia, and redirected discounted Russian coal supplies. What impact will these issues have on seaborne coal prices?
Table of contents
- China – low energy seaborne coal is now cheaper in China
- India – record imports significantly aid in easing the coal crisis
- Europe – revived coal units and healthy gas storage provide hope for energy security
- Australia – exports recover in August but expected to finish weaker on La Ni ñ a ALERT
- Indonesia – strong production continues, exports demand faces headwinds
- Russia – as the EU market is lost, pivot to Asia remains challenged
- South Africa – thermal coal exports continue into Europe
- High/low scenarios
Tables and charts
This report includes 9 images and tables including:
- Australia thermal coal exports
- Australia thermal coal export tradeflow
- Indonesia coal production and exports
- Indonesian total coal exports by destination*
- Indonesian mines 7 day average rainfall (mm/week)
- SA monthly coal exports by country/region
- TFR average coal railed to the RBCT
- Key prices - history and forecast
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%
What's included
This report contains:
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