Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook June 2022
Report summary
Seaborne coal markets continue to move in two distinct directions, with the high-energy supply/demand balance tightening and low-energy balance weakening. The high-energy segment remains highly volatile as supply is tight and prone to disruption while demand is supported by restocking ahead of the ban on Russian coal imports in mid-August. High-energy coal prices received a fresh boost in late June amid further gas supply disruption in Europe. Meanwhile, China’s weak economic recovery keeps low-energy coal demand subdued. Combined with strong Indonesian coal production and exports, this keeps low-energy coal prices stable at a large discount to high-CV supply. Will this trend hold for the remainder of the year and is there a price spike in store for August?
Table of contents
- China – imports reduced on lower-than-expected economic performance
- India – imports to remain strong to offset domestic supply shortfalls during the monsoon
- Europe – imports to stay strong supported by reignited uncertainties over gas supplies
- Australia – BHP to close Mt Arthur Operations by 2030
- Indonesia – June production to hit a record level
- Russia – thermal coal deprioritised on eastbound rail
- Colombia – political headwinds for coal
- South Africa – thermal coal exports into Europe outstrip exports to India
- High/low scenarios
Tables and charts
This report includes 8 images and tables including:
- Australia thermal coal exports
- BHP Mt Arthur Operations outlook
- Indonesia coal production and exports
- Indonesian mines 7 day average rainfall (mm/week)
- South Africa monthly exports
- Average rainfall across South African coal mines
- Key prices - history and forecast
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%
What's included
This report contains:
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