Impact of the Middle East conflict on metallurgical coal

The Middle East conflict has reshaped global metallurgical coal dynamics primarily through freight risk inflation, higher insurance costs, and tighter shipping capacity, rather than direct supply losses, as metallurgical coal routes mostly bypass the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have raised landed costs across major importing regions and accelerated supply chain diversification. India remains cautious, limiting restocking due to rising freight rates, ample seaborne supply, and elevated port inventories, despite softening PLV HCC prices. China, meanwhile, benefits from improved competitiveness of domestic and overland supply, enabling stable mine operations and renewed restocking momentum. Surging thermal coal prices have also triggered greater crossover of met coal into thermal markets, tightening availability of certain grades.