India coal long-term outlook H1 2020: strong fundamentals outweigh short term pressure
India will continue to be a major driver of thermal and metallurgical coal, despite short term obstacles due to coronavirus. We expect thermal coal demand to increase by 45% by 2040. Coal will continue to have a major presence in the power sector, with coal-fired generation share of 53% even in 2040. Demand for metallurgical coal to increase by 140% by 2040, 87% of which will be catered through imports. The Indian government is focusing on policy reforms to push domestic production by liberalising coal sector for commercial mining by the private sector. But we expect that transport and land acquisition issues will continue to prevail, constraining desired results from these reforms. In this report, we look at demand and supply outlook for coal, considering the economic growth of India in the long term.