Commodity Market Report
India coal short-term outlook June 2020: post-lockdown India still struggling to revive growth
Report summary
The coronavirus outbreak and country lockdown in India has impacted growth in the power and steel sectors for 2020. We forecast a gradual recovery for these sectors for 2020 and a quick turnaround in 2021. Thermal coal imports will be down this year due to muted demand and huge inventories at mine sites and power plants accumulated through March 2020. Reduced operating capacities of integrated steel mills will also impact coking coal demand and consequently imports, particularly spot volumes. The Indian government is emphasising more consumption of domestic coal by both the power and non-power sectors. However, we expect a limited impact of such measures due to quality, transportation and consistent supply constraints. In this report, we look at the outlook for thermal and metallurgical coal in the short term.
Table of contents
- Domestic spot prices to remain under pressure due to tepid demand and high stocks
- Country lockdown and continuing pandemic drastically impact thermal coal demand
- and metallurgical coal demand facing pressure too.
- Steel capacity expansion plans delayed in India
- Robust domestic production in Q1 to support production increase in 2020 over last year
Tables and charts
This report includes 11 images and tables including:
- CIL performance in the spot market
- CFR India prices of imported coal
- Key thermal prices: history/forecast, nominal US$/t
- Key met prices: history/ forecast, nominal US$/t
- Monthly coal-fired generation
- Domestic coal stocks at power plants
- Monthly hot metal and steel production
- Imported coal stocks at power plants
- CIL raw coal production
- CIL coal despatches
- Seaborne thermal imports by origin
What's included
This report contains:
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