India coal short-term outlook October 2023

India’s power demand remained robust during the first two months of Q3 2023. Deficient monsoon in Q3 led to a temperature increase along with draught like situations. As such, cooling and pumping demand increased leading to high electricity demand. Domestic coal output thrived in Q3 and will remain strong in Q4 as monsoon withdraws. However, a three-day labor stike may derail the growth somewhat. Demand is also expected to remain robust in Q4. Thermal coal imports should remain stable in Q4 supported by the extension of the madates to the power sector to continue imports. India's hot metal output grew by 11% yoy in July-August due to higher hot metal output from integrated steel mills. Government- funded infrastructure spending ahead of election in 2024 and improved capacity utilization from manufacturing sector are expected to keep the steel demand strong this year. Read on to find out more about these issues and our forecast for the Indian coal market.