India Coal Strategic Planning Outlook - H1 2022
India’s demand for both thermal and metallurgical coal will remain strong, driven by industrialisation, favorable demographics, urbanisation and policy reforms. Total power generation and crude steel production will grow by 167% and 225%, respectively, by 2050. Although coal will continue to dominate India’s power sector for decades to come, we revised down India’ coal-based generation in this update in anticipation of accelerated growth in renewables. Pledges made by India at COP26 summit remain the primary influencer for the revision. However, at COP26, India opted for “phasing down” rather than “phasing out” coal, indicating that the country’s dependence on coal will stay. India’s thermal coal import share will be 15% of the global seaborne market by 2050. Strong growth in BF-BOF dominated steel production to drive country’s metallurgical coal import share to 46% of global seaborne trade by 2050.