Metallurgical coal energy transition outlook 2024

Under our accelerated climate scenario analysis, we see emissions from the steel sector declining by 60% in pledges and 85% in net zero, compared to 30% in our base case. These severe decarbonisation targets will require comprehensive changes to global steel production processes, and its central role in BF steelmaking means that metallurgical coal will be caught in the crosshairs. The loss of metallurgical coal demand will be driven by a combination of declining hot metal production, an optimisation of coke and PCI rates, and the displacement by hydrogen injection. While we expect there to be some support for high grade HCC from steelmakers looking to make some slight emissions savings in the short run, this effect will be drowned out by the overall decline in demand. We expect met coal demand to drop significantly below our base case by 2050 under both decarbonisation scenarios, pulling down our long term prices.