Metallurgical coal in a 2 degree world (Q1 2018 update)

Burgeoning demand in India, and a dearth of HCC supply of suitable quality in China and elsewhere, looks set to propel the metallurgical coal trade to long term growth of around 20% by 2035. However, in a world committed to a 2 degree limit on global temp rises - a carbon constrained world - that growth in import demand would be in jeopardy. In response to client demand, we have assessed the impact of the International Energy Agency's latest view on metallurgical coal demand under an aggressively carbon-constrained scenario. We ask what trade and prices for metallurgical coal might look like under such a scenario. But we also begin to explore some of the complexities around the impact of a low carbon future on met coal demand, and identify some of the factors that might result in unexpected outcomes.