Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook February 2022
Report summary
The seaborne metallurgical coal market continued to defy gravity as prices remained sky high. The Russia/Ukraine conflict added some new variables to this price equation. The month brought us a new record for PLV HCC, reaching nearly US$460/t. The same themes from last month carried over – tight supply from weather, Covid and supply chain inefficiencies – severely limiting spot cargoes. China took a breather from import markets during the lunar new year holiday and Beijing’s Winter Olympics. Prices were range bound as cheaper domestic prices and limited demand kept the lid on markets. Loosening steel and coke production cuts late in the month signal renewed demand into March and Q2. Sanctions are impacting Russia and its economy The ultimate impact on regional and global energy markets remains to be seen. However, any overflow into the wider economy could jeopardise broader recovery efforts.
Table of contents
- Seaborne supply situation remains challenged
- Domestic met coal supply in China piles up during holidays
- Outlook: improving supply on the horizon
- Outlook: Russian supply wildcard
- Outlook: loosening steel production cuts boosts Chinese coal demand
- Outlook: transition to lower prices still expected over 2022
- China: Olympics and winter cuts temporarily dampen demand
- India: struggling imports amid tight supply and surging prices
- Europe: Russia/Ukraine conflict raises concerns for EU met coal supply
- Australia: supply improves but wet weather could still ruin the party
- Australia: Queensland port throughput up in January as wet weather eases
- Australia: a new longwall era begins for Anglo
- Russia: Russia/Ukraine conflict casts long shadow on markets
- Mozambique: Moatize’s production continues to grow
- Canada: Teck eyes greener portfolio
- United States: miscellaneous issues still affecting spot supply
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Chinese coke stocks - number of days
- Chinese coke inventories at mills by regions
- Indian metallurgical coal imports
- Indian coke and pig iron prices
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
- Worst impacted Qld met coal mines (1 Nov to 21 Feb)
- Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)
- Anglo's attributable met coal production (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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