Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook January 2022
Report summary
We continue to see supply as the price supporter this month, as even contractual demands are difficult for met suppliers to meet. A variety of factors are to blame including: Covid cases, supply chain issues and wet weather. One saving grace for suppliers struggling to keep up is a slowdown in Chinese buying. Lower demand in the leadup to the Spring Festival and Beijing’s Olympic games limited imports. Moving forward, as global demand contracts over the year, a post-La Niña market will see supply improve. Prices will correct lower. A critical wildcard will be how China manages its domestic production, post-Olympics. With demand on the decline, Chinese intervention is always in play. We see PLV HCC price remaining significantly above our 90th percentile breakeven price throughout 2022. The US LV price will switch its allegiance of price support from the FOB Australia price to the CFR China price mid-year.
Table of contents
- Seaborne supply goes from bad to worse
- Domestic China met coal supply is tight too
- Outlook: challenging supply situation supports price
- Outlook: post-Olympic price bump before road to balance
- Market rebalance still the most likely outcome over 2022
- China: new year brings production boost
- India: soaring coal prices constrain demand
- Europe: full-scale Ukrainian conflict risks Russian coal supply to Europe and allies
- Australia: Omicron, weather and longwall moves tighten supply
- Australia: Queensland port throughput in December lower than expected
- Australia: Q4 2021 production results point to lower output
- Mozambique: cyclone has little effect on exports
- Canada: rail and port infrastructure impediments put Teck mine production at risk
- Canada: Riversdale loses Grassy Mountain appeal
- United States: HVA supply tightness will ease in next few months
- Russia: new quotas threaten metallurgical coal exports growth
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian PCI imports
- Indian coke imports and exports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
- Worst impacted Qld met coal mines (1 Nov to 25 Jan)
- Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)
- BMA quarterly production (Mt)
- Australia met coal production by company (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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