Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Steel raw materials are increasingly under pressure because of post-pandemic stimulus, and consumer demand. Miners both inside and outside China are struggling to cope. A combination of covid outbreaks, weather disruptions and industrial disputes, have left Chinese markets short. Meanwhile, a shortage of BHP cargoes, and stuttering supply elsewhere in Australia, has been insufficient to meet the needs of international steel makers, some of whom are struggling to fill the gap left by US, Canadian and Russian coals chasing stratospheric prices in China. The market is under duress, but as China takes steps to curb steel production, and supply recovers through Q3 and Q4, there will be a rebalancing. But it is difficult to predict how quickly that will happen with further risks of covid outbreaks and climate-related disruptions.
Table of contents
- Chinese supply constraints playing a key role
- Supply outside China is also struggling
-
Outlook: Conditions to ease but when?
- China supply crunch to linger through August
- International supply also has room to grow
- Demand at risk from intervention
- China: steel demand topping out, but supply structurally tight
- Crude steel production looks set for a slower H2 as well
- Indian steel production gaining momentum, but domestic demand remains sluggish
- European flash floods a temporary disruption
- Australia: Queensland met coal throughput climbs to a financial year-end high
- 3 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- India's coke exports and imports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- BMA quarterly production (Mt)
- Australia met coal production by company (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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