Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook November 2021
Report summary
It was inevitable that prices would fall eventually, and November was the turning point. Still in doubt is the pace of the decline and the final resting place for prices. Australian PHCC fell by more than US$85/t in the month, but coals imported into China fared worse, losing over US$200/t, after domestic prices collapsed. China, as usual, was the main catalyst when government intervention in both steel and coal sectors brought additional pressure to prices. The onset of La Nina, amidst tight Australian supply, is still causing some consternation among buyers. The supply tightness suggests a gradual decline in prices over coming month, rather than the sharp drop that many participants fear.
Table of contents
- Chinese coal supply turns the market
- Seaborne prices follow China’s lead
- Outlook: Price support withdraws but supply still has plenty to do.
- China: crude steel production continues to fall amid on-going weak demand
- India: high coal prices impacting metallurgical coal demand
- Japan: economic resurgence as Covid cases tank
- Southeast Asia: Indonesia recovering, but Vietnam still feeling Covid effects
- Europe:
- Australia: near-term supply risks
- Australia: Stanmore swings for the fences with BMC pickup
- Australia: M&A activity and mine restarts driven by mid and small-tier players
- Australia: Mining incident at Curragh
- Mozambique: Nacala derailment suspends Moatize exports
- Canada: port of Vancouver bottleneck to impact Teck
- Russia: thermal coal accident to impact met coal operations
Tables and charts
This report includes 9 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian PCI imports
- Indian coke imports and exports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Rainfall across Queensland met coal mines (19 to 26 November)
- Rainfall by met coal mine (19 – 26 November)
What's included
This report contains:
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